Four players in the John Newcombe group are still in with a chance of progressing, with Alexander Zverev facing Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud facing Andrey Rublev.
After beating Rublev and Ruud, Zverev leads the group but is not sure of a semi-final ticket. The German needs to win at least one set against Alcaraz to ensure a place in the next round. This is not difficult in the context of Zverev’s high form.
At the ATP Finals, Zverev won the championship in 2018 and 2021. In seven appearances, the German player won 16 matches and received nine defeats, the best statistics among the eight players playing in the ATP Finals this year.
“The numbers show that I’m old,” Zverev joked before the final round of the ATP Finals group stage on November 15. “But I don’t feel that way. I hope I can play well for another 10 years. This season, the game is shifting with many excellent young players. I think that’s good for tennis.”
One of the current leaders of tennis is Alcaraz, the winner of four Grand Slams at the age of 21. However, in Turin, the Spaniard is having a hard time. Poor health has caused Alcaraz’s performance to decline. He lost shockingly to Ruud in two sets in the opening match. Things improved in the second round, with a nasal patch to help him breathe, Alcaraz beat Rublev, thereby continuing to nurture his hopes of reaching the semi-finals.
Alcaraz and Zverev have a 5-5 head-to-head record. This season, the two have met three times on the biggest stages. Zverev won in the Australian Open quarter-finals, before Alcaraz smiled in the Indian Wells Masters quarter-finals and, crucially, the Roland Garros final.
Comparing his racket to his familiar opponent, Alcaraz commented: “I think I return serves quite well, but I still have trouble because Zverev serves very hard. He also hits very well from the baseline. Those are the things I don’t like when facing him.”
In the remaining match in the John Newcombe Group, Rublev has only one way to reach the semi-finals. He must beat Ruud in two sets, and Zverev must do the same against Alcaraz. Then Zverev will take the top spot, while the second place will be determined by the percentage of games won. That is still a narrow door for Rublev to squeeze through.
On the other hand, Ruud has more chances after a one-win, one-loss result. Even if he loses to Rublev in three sets, Ruud will still qualify for the group stage if Zverev beats Alcaraz. Of course, Ruud does not want such a complicated scenario. The Norwegian will aim for a third win in his eighth match against Rublev. Notably, both of Ruud’s previous wins over Rublev came at the ATP Finals, in 2021 and 2022.