Winning against Andrey Rublev in the second round of the ATP Finals group stage helped Carlos Alcaraz reach 12 wins against top 10 opponents this year, only two matches behind Jannik Sinner.
Alcaraz kept alive his chances of reaching the semi-finals of the ATP Finals with a 6-3, 7-6(8) win over Rublev in a match that saw him regain some of his form after an illness. The world number three improved his serve, hitting 70 per cent of first balls, facing no break points and hitting 10 aces.
This was Alcaraz’s 20th win over top-10 opponents on hard courts, including eight against top-5 opponents. At 21 years and 192 days, he is the second youngest player in history to reach the milestone, behind Lleyton Hewitt. The Australian legend had 20 top-10 wins before turning 21.
Alcaraz has won 12 and lost four matches against top 10 opponents this year. He needs one more win to match the record of the “Big 4” players at their peak. Between 2000 and 2022, only four players have won at least 13 matches against top 10 opponents: Novak Djokovic (10 times), Roger Federer (10 times), Rafael Nadal (4 times) and Andy Murray (3 times).
Sinner joined the group last year with 13 wins against the top 10. This year, the Italian has won 14 matches against the world’s strongest opponents, bringing his career total against the top 10 to 36. Since the beginning of his career, Sinner has lost 32 matches against this group of opponents and has a win rate of 53%.
Alcaraz’s career win-loss record against the top 10 is 35-18, a 66% win rate. Legendary Federer has a 65% career win rate, Nadal has 64%, Murray has 52%, and Djokovic has 69%. The only player in history to have a win rate over 70% against the world’s top 10 is Bjorn Borg (71%).
Despite beating Rublev, Alcaraz is still at risk of being eliminated from the ATP Finals group stage if he loses to Alexander Zverev in the final round. There are 10 possible outcomes in the decisive round of the John Newcombe group and the Spanish player can only decide his fate by winning.
Today, the two bottom matches of the Ilie Nastase group will take place with similar complications. Daniil Medvedev will play Jannik Sinner, while Taylor Fritz will meet Alex de Minaur.